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Net change in cash and marketable securities:

 The results of the first three calculations are used to determine the total increase or decrease in cash and marketable securities caused by fluctuations in operating, investing and financing cash flow. This number is then checked against the change in cash reflected on the balance sheet from period to period to verify that the calculation has been done correctly.

 

Estimating Collection Receipts

  By reviewing a accounting rec­ords, a management can determine the pattern of receipts.  To assist in determining this pattern, the management should develop a table that displays: (1) the type of each receipt, (2) the total amount of the receipt and (3) the month when each portion of the receipt was received.  The management should assess the historical patterns of these cash flows in light of current esti­mates and events.  Although making adjustments for changing time environments is uncertain business, attempting to make such adjustments should improve a collections forecast.

 

Forecasting Disbursements

The expenditures tend to be relatively constant; accordingly, they can be relia­bly predicted.  A management should use prior expenditure records, together with the next fiscal year's budget, to calculate the amount of the annual payroll.

The gross payroll, however, is not the amount disbursed.  Rather, the amount disbursed is the gross payroll amount less deductions for federal and state income taxes and for fringe benefits, such as workers com­pensation and retirement.  The payroll disbursement forecast should also include adjustments for seasonal or temporary workers and for seasonal payments, such as vacation advances in the summer months.  If a municipality offers a lump sum payment option for teachers, the payments are disbursed at the end of the school year.

Disbursement of monies previously withheld for income taxes and for employee benefits constitutes a signifi­cant payment by a municipality.  To forecast the amount of this disbursement for some discrete period, such as from July 1 through January 1, the management must add all of the deductions from a weekly or biweekly pay­roll and multiply the sum by the number of pay periods falling within the designated time period.

After completing the payroll disbursement forecast, the management should develop forecasts for other kinds of payments.  The management might begin by analyzing each departmental budget for non-payroll items and then focusing on the more expensive items first.  For each item, the management should converse with the departmental officials familiar with expenditures to discover the pattern of past cash dis­bursements with respect to that item and the anticipated pattern and amount of expenditure for the item for the upcoming year.  The management, based upon a greater familiarity with the timing and volume of cash outflows, should ensure that these patterns and expenditure projections are reasonable.  

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